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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

The Technology Bubble

You can't cure delusion and delirium at the same time.

This one's certainly for you if you eagerly await articles which sound like - Technology Trends for the year 2XYZ - unless of course, your belief system says line 1 doesn't make sense.

 Have you caught these buzz words recently? Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Neural Networks, IoT. Chances are that you have. If you haven't, you might still have time to catch up on Tom and Jerry and save yourself the trouble. But seriously, you may be into something else which may be important to you and that's a good thing!

Have you wondered:
  1. Why does promoting a particular technology and invariably solicit investment become more important that solving existing problems?
  2. Why are these promotions always backed by a study that no one will remember next year when the findings are proven wrong?
  3. Why do these trends always come with the message We dare you to miss the bus?
I don't at all deny that new technology and fresh thought streams are required when we hit the ceiling with existing ones. Have you noticed the hype around every buzzword - be it conferences, workshops, courses, hackathons and so on. Noise invariably dies down just like a buzzword that didn't quite live up to the hype.
Am I saying these aforementioned activities are worthless? Hardly that. The real question is: Where is the accountability to the hype?

Dare to dream is a common bubble blower these days. You sit at a quiet corner, wrap yourself in a colorful bubble, wonder how beautiful it looks from inside, invite more dare-to-dreamers who wont burst your bubble, show them a rainbow and... wait. Wait for them to share the dream with you in the form of investment.

I wonder if anyone asks these days "Do we need this?", since the handouts when you entered the bubble had already answered exactly that, in bold: Of course you need it! - I dare you to dream and I also dare that you refuse.

A typical business leader might look at the technology trend curve and say "Hmm. The reports say it will last 5 years. So I'll still get my share of the pie".
New technology comes with need for a workforce educated enough to build, say a product, based on the bleeding edge technology. You then contact academia, have them put something together in a hurry, advertise, make a few job promises and you are on your way. Others will pick up the scent and it spreads - I dare you to not compete.

A new bubble is ready to burst.

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